In my public presentations about Seeds of Terror, I’m frequently asked for my opinion on proposals to bulk purchase or simply legalize Afghanistan’s poppy crop, either for use in pharmaceuticals or as a bio-fuel.
The questions usually go: “Wouldn’t it be easier if we just bought all the poppy?” Or: “Shouldn’t we just take all that opium and put it into legal drugs?”
And there’s something to that. I think it’s entirely possible that opium poppy grown legally and hygienically in Afghanistan could one day help supply what the International Council on Security and Development calls a critical shortage of pain killer in the developing world.
I am also intrigued by recent proposals that include ideas to distribute genetically modified poppy seeds, that would not produce narcotic opium, as part of a broad effort to develop alternative livelihoods. In that case the crop could be harvested and processed to make diesel bio-fuel and animal feed. One of the study’s authors tells me Afghan farmers stand to earn almost as much as they currently do selling opium poppy on the black market and it would not have a negative impact on food production.
These are good proposals but they will work only after Afghanistan has been stabilized, and rule of law is established.
However if Afghanistan’s poppy crop were legalized tomorrow, there would neither be the infrastructure nor the resources in place to regulate the world’s largest opium crop.
Who will make sure it gets sold to pharmaceutical companies and not to drug traffickers? I bet it won’t be Afghanistan’s notoriously corrupt police, many of whom also profit off the drug trade.
And who will ensure it gets harvested hygienically? Afghanistan’s Food and Drug Administration? Oh wait, there isn’t one.
Is there a bio-fuel firm that’s ready and eager to build a processing plant in lawless southern Afghanistan? Are there volunteers willing to risk their lives in the war-torn poppy belt to train locals to run it?
Those are only the basic obstacles. The real issue is much larger – and not ours alone to assess: It’s easy for us to sit here in the United States and talk about legalizing Afghanistan’s poppy crop, since almost none of the opiates produced there end up on US streets (and in fact, heroin use in this country is declining, according to the National Survey on Drug Use and Health).
Folks have a different perspective on legalization proposals in places like Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia and Russia, where heroin addiction rates are skyrocketing. Russia, which has the world’s largest number of heroin addicts, has called on the United Nations to mandate that international troops in Afghanistan launch an aggressive poppy eradication campaign.
It isn’t possible to talk about Afghanistan in terms of “wouldn’t it be easier if…” or “shouldn’t we just…”
There will be nothing easy about stabilizing Afghanistan. And there is no silver bullet strategy to magically transform it into a “Central Asian Valhalla.”
There is just one exit strategy for Afghanistan. Nation building – from the bottom up. Afghans need roads, schools, security and a strong, clean and stable government. Putting all that in place can’t be done piecemeal. It will take money, time, coordination and patience.
I’m not suggesting that it will be easy. But the cost of not doing it could be unthinkable.
Hi – just to let you know, there IS indeed a biofuels company willing to do the tough job in Afghanistan – and we’re actually here on the ground now! Our company, Afghan Eco-Fuels, is pursuing the establishment of a biodiesel processing plant here in Afghanistan. While you mention the South, it is equally important to secure the support of the northern provinces. We are looking at establishing a proof-of-concept in the MeZ area first, then expanding the model across the country. It must be bottom-up driven, with grass roots support in order to have any chance of success. Unfortunately, the “donor community” as well as other sources of financial support have not been forthcoming with the necessary capital required to accomplish such a feat. We are here, and we are ready – where is everyone else?
Thanks for posting, I’ll definitely be subscribing to your blog.
Wow, what a surprise, a burst of honesty. A bio-fuel company admitting they are ready to “do the tough job” in the north, where there are far fewer security problems. Good for you. Because people in northern Afghanistan need development and job opportunities too. But the fact remains that the chorus of “experts” saying “we should just buy the poppy” or “we should just turn it into medicine/bio-fuel” or whatever are always implying or stating directly that this strategy will kneecap the insurgents. IT WILL NOT. I am tired of the legalization argument drawing attention from what Afghanistan (and Pakistan) urgently need. That is LAW AND ORDER.
[...] June 9 I posted this blog arguing that proposals to legalize Afghanistan’s poppy crop are [...]
It looks like the US policy has been adjusted (after an announcement yesterday) somewhat along the lines of your recommendations, that is, going after the labs and traffickers. As far as you know, does ISAF have good enough intel to take this tack, ie do they know who the traffickers are and their routes, and the locations of labs? I agree it should yield more positive results. The Pakistanis should help, especially now that their hand has been tipped. It may also help root out corrupt ANP and provincial officials.
Very impressive Book TV presentation on “Seeds of Terror.”
I get the complexity of the situation, but ….
As long as we are there can we replace the seeds of terror with “seeds of peace”? How about trading seeds of wheat (or whatever) for opium paste?
The farmers need to feed their families. The US needs to slow the flow of funds to the Haqqiri. Timing is the issue if the farmers are getting loans that tie them to the smugglers that have to be paid off when the crop comes in, but every kilo of paste we divert is a much bigger loss to the smugglers and processors that fund the insurgents.
We handed out cash to the Iraqi villagers, why can’t our troops hand out seeds of peace in exchange for their seeds of terror?
Thanks for all that you do.
Cheers.
I think I will try to recommend this post to my friends and family, cuz it’s really helpful.
The Economist: January 6th, 2007. Afghanistan’s opium crop: Much gain, less pain
“Here is an even bolder idea: an American security writer, Walton Cook, has argued that simply paying Afghan poppy farmers not to grow poppies would be cheap compared to the social cost of heroin use. “
Afghan Heroin as an Economic Wonder-Drug
A new high from a powerful new wonder-drug? Since Afghanistan produces 93% of the world’s heroin, what might be done to make heroin an economic wonder-drug? In the public interest, we recommend a new formula: an agricultural subsidy for a ‘no Afghan poppy’ crop; in this instance, a strategic diplomatic agricultural subsidy not to cultivate opium poppies at all!
We recommend a ‘no poppy’ subsidy of $5.6 billion annually for the next 10 years. $2.8 billion is a direct replacement of the $2.8 billion now represented in the Afghan GDP by poppy cultivation. $2.8 billion more annually is for direct farmer payments, alternate agriculture; crop monitoring. improving security, build-up of the Afghan army, for economic and social infrastructures, and for employment, education, health, transportation, housing, justice and judicial reform initiatives.
(The US pays $20 billion annual subsidy for only five crops, plus $2.3 billion more each year just for 40 million acres of croplands not cultivated and for livestock not raised. Nearly 90% of this ‘corporate welfare’ goes to farmers already in the wealthiest 10%. In return, consumers get no lowered food costs. In fact, taxpayers get nothing in return.) Everybody loves a bargain!
Western nations today, the primary users of heroin, get no new trade, no elimination of heroin, no reduction in the societal cost of its use, no terror reduction, no improvement in homeland security and no benefits abroad. Everybody loves a bargain!
In contrast, in the 30 richest nations alone, cumulative savings could be in the magnitude of $160 billion annually. We would also reduce other high societal costs of heroin use, including narcotics funded terror and security, and gain one less WMD. We get our new ‘high’ from high return, on-the investment created at no net cost by rich/poor nation price differentials which exceed the ‘no poppy’ subsidy by well over $150 billion annually. In 10 years this subsidy earns $1.5 trillions profit.
Members of the US House and Senate and EU governments understand agricultural subsidies well, worth $300 + billion a year. None, however, can recall a formula that offers so large and important a return-on-investment! This new formula to transform heroin into an economic wonder-drug is even more potent considering the worldwide societal cost of heroin, one shared by all nations, of nearly $400 billion dollars annually. Quite a benefit to be shared!
Should the richer nations share this wonder drug formula, only a small portion of their ‘cost-free’ economic ‘high’ for the benefit of all, then the globalization of benefits would accrue to all, both rich and poor. Besides money, this formula now enables the absence of heroin to also save millions of lives, a true economic wonder in our time waltoncook@yahoo.com Are you high yet?
[...] of Afghanistan’s drug trade. Having looked around your website, we disagree on some issues and agree on others, including the extent to which ordinary Afghan people are victimized by the opium trade. You have [...]
I did not suggest buying up the poppy crop, but to pay for never cultivating it in the first place! Why start at the bottom in the state building process when you can start in-the- black with $216 billion profit annually over a ten year subsidy period and eliminate the Taliban’s main source of income in the same process and time–all for an much smaller up front subsidy of $730 annually million to replace the farm-door income while farmers and farm workers are learning either new occupations, new crops, or being educated and having their human capital potential (and lifespans) markedly increased. Not bad!